Hello again -

You’ve probably noticed the newsletter has been absent. For that, I apologize. For now, efforts have been going toward answer questions in the Patreon and on the podcast.

You’re probably wondering about Cooper Kupp, though. So here are my thoughts with some data:

Cooper Kupp

Kupp is a floor play this week and will likely be on a snap count. But here’s what you can expect:

WRs returning from a hamstring strain typically see 91% of usual 1st read targets and 70% of usual fantasy points (PPR). However, since 2018 7/11 WRs 28 and older had a reinjury.

Keenan Allen returned after a long layoff last season and scored 12 PPR points. That’s definitely in the range of outcomes for Kupp. Most teams can start him but temper expectations as the Rams’ goal for him is to simply make it out of the game healthy.

Saquon Barkley

Barkley is allegedly a game-time decision. As of today, he’s not a slam dunk to play as the average amount of missed time is a shade over 2, and the mode (most frequently missed time) is 3. Barkley has missed 2 games so far. Some managers can’t really afford to gamble. If you just need points, start another RB. If you’re desperate and flailing, keep reading.

Here’s some data on RBs of his profile after high ankle sprains:

-107% of typical opportunities (carries/targets)

-120% of typical fantasy points

And…

RBs who missed 2 or 3 weeks due to a high ankle:

-124% typical fantasy points

In other words, Barkley can probably provide good value against a bottom 6 in EPA Miami rushing defense.

Here’s the rest of the Week 5 Injury NFL Injury Update on Youtube and the audio version:

If you want to stay 100% up to date on NFL injury situations at all times which includes Q&A’s with me along with some dialogue (and some tequila talk) I really encourage you to check out the Patreon. If you want to try it out for FREE for one month, click here, join, then DM me “Newsletter”. I’ll refund the month and you can try it for free!

Enjoy

-Edwin