Cooper Kupp Profile and We're SO Back!

Kupp is a Steal at ADP

Author

Edwin Porras
August 03, 2024

Hey there!

We are so back.

You know what else is back? The Injury [PRO] Draft Guide. Its officially here!

Order your copy today by clicking on this link here and claim your 20% discount!

In honor of the Guide coming together, I wanted to give you another freebie. Here’s how I feel about Cooper Kupp. Get dozens of these write-ups by ordering the Draft Guide today!

Cooper Kupp

In 2021 Cooper Kupp averaged 21.6 half PPR fantasy points per game. It remains the highest mark in 9 seasons for a WR. He followed that up in 2022 by averaging 18.2 half PPR points and finished as the WR1 in PPG - again.

In 2022 Kupp broke his ankle but was still - rightfully so - a top 10 pick by ADP come summertime. Then what happened?

Here’s the 2023 story of Cooper Kupp

  • 8/1/2023: Injured hamstring in camp

  • 8/31/2023: Hamstring setback

  • Weeks 1-4: OUT due to hamstring

  • Week 5-6: Kupp averages 20 points

  • Week 7: Puka erupts for 154 yards 

    • Kupp scores 5.9 points

  • Week 8: Staffford is injured and also misses Week 9

    • Kupp scores 4.1 and 5.8 points in those 2 games

    • Puka scores 4.3 and 3.2 points in those 2 games

  • Week 11: Cooper Kupp injures ankle and scores 1.3 points

  • Week 12: Kupp scores 3.3 points

    • Puka 2.7 points

  • Weeks 13-17: Kupp averages 14.8 points good for WR11

    • Puka finishes as WR3


There’s no denying it - the context of the Rams offense has changed by adding Puka who has stepped into the downfield role. But how exactly has that impacted Kupp? Let’s compare Kupp’s 2022 numbers to the last 4 weeks of his 2023:

Cooper Kupp Weeks 13-17 in 2023:

  • Team air yards share: 20%

  • Team target share: 24.6%

  • Targets per routes run: 0.26

  • YPRR: 2

Cooper Kupp in 2022:

  • Team air yards: 34%

  • Team target share: 30%

  • Targets per routes run: 0.31

  • YPRR: 2.64

The obvious impact Puka has made on Kupp is in the air yards share and yards per route run. So even though Puka’s target share in the final weeks of the season was 23.5% (compared to Kupp’s 25%) Puka’s targets are worth more. 

It's fair to say that Puka’s targets are worth more. It's fair to say he can outscore Cooper Kupp if he sustains these numbers.

What isn’t fair is assuming that Kupp is washed given the fact that he’s still top 6 in target share amongst qualified WRs according to FantasyPoints Data. 

The last fair point to bring up is the 33% recurrence rate in hamstring injuries and the fact that the older a player is, the more likely a recurrence is to happen.

If only there was a 31 year old previously elite WR we could point to who we tried to write off as washed because of a severe hamstring strain only to be proven immensely wrong to the tune of a WR3 finish. 

Keenan Allen has entered the chat.

Over the last two years here are teammate WRs who have finished inside the top 25 on a PPG basis:

2023

  • Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle: WR1 and WR25

  • Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk: WR9 and WR14

  • Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp WR7 and WR27 

    • Last 4 weeks of the season WR5/WR11

2022: 

  • Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle: WR4 and WR13

  • A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith: WR7 and WR16

  • Mike Evans and Chris Godwin: WR14 and WR20

  • Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel: WR24 and WR25

Be honest: how surprised would you be if the Rams top wideouts both finished as top 10 WRs with Sean McVay in control? Sure, there's a risk Kupp falls off or if re-injured. But the truth is that the median outcome is Kupp finishes as a top 15 WR. And even if it isn’t the most likely outcome, he can still finish inside the top 5. He’s worth any perceived risk.