Fantasy Football Performance Outliers After ACL Surgery

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter and subscribe to the Injury Prone Podcast.

Welcome back to the Injury Prone Newsletter, where we dive into the world of player injuries and their impact on fantasy football. In the latest edition, we debunked the widely-believed "2nd Year ACL" Myth, shedding light on the rarity of NFL running backs bouncing back to previous levels of fantasy production after such injuries. However, we also highlighted a group of exceptional players who defied the odds and returned within 1 year or 2 years post-op.

This edition of the newsletter will focus on the key attributes shared by the 4 running backs who made remarkable recoveries within 1 year of their surgeries. Age and draft capital have shown strong correlations with returning to the same level of play and having a prolonged career, Let's take a closer look at the traits exhibited by most of these 4 players:

• 26 or younger at the time of injury.

• Exceptionally athletic, surpassing even NFL standards.

• A minimum of 9 months dedicated to rehab.

• At least round 4 NFL draft capital.

• Relatively straightforward surgical procedures.

  In addition to these factors, we shouldn't overlook the impact of experience itself on skill development. We can observe this phenomenon with players like Dalvin Cook, whose ACL tear coincided with his rookie season, leading to noticeable improvements in the following year

With these facts in mind, it's difficult not to feel indignant about the immense potential Breece Hall holds as a fantasy football outlier this year. He ticks many of the boxes for success: youth, extraordinary athleticism, ample rehab time, NFL draft capital, and prior production. While we acknowledge that even highly promising players can face obstacles and disappointments after ACL surgery, Hall's profile presents an exciting opportunity for gamers to exploit.

• 21 years old

• 96th percentile SPORQ

  • 92nd percentile 40-yard dash

• 9.75 months to rehab

• 36th overall pick in the NFL draft

• A surgical procedure was simple

*TBD: will not start on PUP

However, we must also consider the potential pitfalls that come with recovering from an ACL injury. Examples include muscle strain injuries due to altered workloads after rehab (as seen with Dalvin Cook), freak injuries (like the one experienced by Saquon Barkley), the need for a second "cleanup" procedure (J.K. Dobbins), capped volume or competition in the backfield (also J.K. Dobbins), and psychological limitations (such as in the case of WR Michael Gallup).

In conclusion, the stage is set for Breece Hall to surpass expectations and thrive in the fantasy football realm. Nevertheless, it's crucial to remember that nothing in the world of sports is a guarantee. In our next edition, we’ll explore "compensation" injuries and delve into the challenges that both Breece Hall and another certain NFL running back returning from an ACL tear will face

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter and subscribe to the Injury Prone Podcast.