What you get, Hamstring Strains and Keenan Allen

Hi again,

I really can’t contain my excitement about The Injury Prone Draft Guide and Playbook. I’m so excited I realized that I didn’t do a great job of telling you how this helps you absolutely crush your fantasy leagues. Either dynasty or redraft. As mentioned before, use promo code INJURYPRONE25 for 25% off the guide.

Here’s what you get:

• 40 player profiles specifically about injury histories and how that projects performance forward

• Durability rankings/tiers to help refine your draft strategy and optimize your roster

• Key players to target or avoid in drafts and in transactions in-season

• Performance metrics for every position coming off ACL surgery

• Performance metrics for every position coming off foot/ankle surgery

• Performance metrics after high ankle sprains, concussions, and every major injury in-season

• A list of players to handcuff prioritized by teammates’ injury history

• 10+ years of historical ADP data and how injury impacts fantasy outcomes outcomes

• 10+ years of injury histories to help decide which players are at high risk

To further illustrate what you get, here’s an example of a player profile from the guide using Keenan Allen:

• Underdog Overall ADP/Underdog Positional ADP: 36/WR19

• 2023 Outlook: Keenan is sneaky risky coming into this season at 31 years old with a soft tissue injury history

• Risk: Significantly Above Average - Extreme Risk

As mentioned in the WR hamstring section of the guide, age is a risk factor for further hamstring strains. So is a previous hamstring strain. At this point, it’s either time for the Chargers to manage Allen’s reps or they need to overhaul his maintenance/prevention program. Considering Allen missed 0, 2, then 7 games due to hamstring strains since 2019, we hope this is being addressed. For this first time in his career, I would consider Keenan Allen sneaky risky as opposed to sneaky safe.

The worst-case scenario (which I don’t necessarily see happening) is we have a 2020 Julio Jones situation in which he fought through hamstring injuries until he couldn’t play anymore. Not likely but it is in the cards. Here’s a complete list of WRs since 2018 who have missed at least 4 games in a season due to a hamstring strain. Notably, Allen is 1 of 2 WRs since 2018 over the age of 30 to miss at least 4 games due to a hamstring strain. The other was Julio Jones in 2020:

Allen is entering Year 10 of his career, where a clear drop-off in production occurs as Ryan Heath studied in his Age Curves article. WRs in Year 10 regress to 77.2% of their career baseline production. If that typical regression were to take place, it would take Allen from his 16.7 PPR points per game baseline (last six years) down to 13.0 FPG this season.

That’s it for today. Again, don’t forget to use promo code INJURYPRONE25 for 25% off the guide. Here’s the link if you need it again.

-Edwin