Javonte Williams Update

Hello, again, friend!

My Draft Guide and Season Long Playbook finally dropped this week! So to celebrate, I’ll be sharing Javonte Williams’ profile update. If you want more profiles like this to dominate your draft, here’s a link to grab your copy of the guide. And since you’re a loyal subscriber, use code INJURYPRONE25 TO GET 25% off until next Monday.

With no further ado, here’s Javonte Williams’ update:

Underdog Overall ADP/Underdog Positional ADP: 81/RB26

Risk: Significantly Above Average - Extreme Risk

2023 Outlook: I like him better - wait for it - in baseball (or as a platoon after going Zero RB). Will start slow and potential setbacks are in the cards.

Surprisingly, Javonte Williams did not start camp on PUP after his 2022 October surgery to repair his ACL and structures in the PLC (posterolateral corner). Now, this could end up being a mirage as he’s still in the bulky brace but as of now, he’s at least on track to practice unrestricted with the team come late August. The Broncos even went as far as to say Williams will play in the pre-season. It’s hard to be the one who rains on the parade but this feels like an instance where Javonte continues to check physical boxes, which is great.

Zooming back out though, the reason this injury is “worse” than an isolated ACL is because the structures in the back–outside corner of the knee are also damaged. The knee’s stability was significantly compromised and no amount of back squats in the world is going to speed tissue healing. My gut reaction is this: it feels like last season when Chris Godwin returned before even taking contact. He’s gaining momentum which is hard for teams to deny.

It is worth noting that since 2011, only 8 RBs have returned to game action by month 11 post-surgery. When Week 1 rolls around, Williams will be exactly 334 days (11 months) post-surgery. For context, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins took 380 days. Every injury is different and guys recover at different rates, but my best guess is that Williams needs somewhere between 11 - 12 months to be truly ready. Additionally, since 2008, 71% of RBs who did miss time due to lower body injuries after an ACL tear either started the season on PUP and/or had a complicated knee injury. Those RBs were identifiable in the pre-season. Let's just say Williams didn’t start on PUP but it sure seems like he could have.

How does Williams match up to the outlier criteria mentioned above? His receiving performance of 4.67 PPR points per game over 21 games does demonstrate versatility. Additionally, at just 23 years old, Williams has youth on his side plus his NFL draft capital of 35th overall further highlights how the Broncos view him. However, athletic metrics don’t favor Williams who falls within the 69th percentile in SPORQ and the 40th percentile in the 40-yard dash. Efficiency for a bruiser like Williams could (will?) suffer. It’s best not to count on a ceiling year for Williams and remember pitch counts and complications midseason are still possible.

Thanks for reading. Be sure to check out the guide and use INJURYPRONE25 for 25% off.

-Edwin