Rushing Attempts and QB Injury Rates

Last week I published part 2 of an evergreen series chronicling injury rates and quarterback rushing attempts (you can read part 1 here). Last week’s publication is behind a paywall but because you’re a loyal Injury Prone Truther, I’ve decided to send it out to you folks for FREE. It will be taken down by the end of this week (don’t get used to, gotta keep the lights on :)). As the summer goes on, remember to be on the lookout for the Injury Prone Draft Guide and Season-Long Playbook. This is just 1 of many chapters that will be included. Now, without further ado, the QB injury rates and rushing attempts.

Usually, I only briefly reference a link to previous articles, but reviewing the conclusions of that previous study is important, so here’s the TL;DR:

1. Nobody is positing that a quarterback should ram into a defender repeatedly because it’s safer than passing the ball.

2. From 2016 to 2020, thousands of plays were analyzed, and the study found that dropbacks ending in sacks and knockdowns/hits have the highest injury rates among NFL QBs compared to designed runs and scrambles.

3. Case studies like Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton are considered outliers, and the running style of quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson indicates that many of their rushes do not result in contact.

4. Examining the careers of historically “mobile” quarterbacks demonstrates their longevity and success.

5. The narrative of pocket passers being less injury-prone lacks evidence, and the trend is shifting towards recognizing the value of ultra-athletic quarterbacks in both the NFL and fantasy football alike.

Now, why would you need more evidence than that? Here’s what this new study aims to accomplish:

1. Find the statistical significance and impact of the data

2. Further, define “mobile” and “non-mobile” QB

3. Identify how many games QBs in each category missed

4. Account for BMI and age

While it's true that quarterbacks who take hits are at a higher risk of getting hurt, it's essential to understand that being a mobile quarterback does not necessarily mean facing a higher likelihood of injury. In fact, when quarterbacks are prepared to take hits or skillfully avoid them, their injury rates aren't as high as the narrative implies. The goal of this study is to find statistical data to support that hypothesis. Here’s a brief description of the population and methods.

Criteria and Definition

This study examined quarterbacks from 2018 to 2022 who played in at least three games and/or were projected to be the team’s starter that season prior to injury. Players like Jeff Driskel and Taysom Hill were removed from the sample. Sporadic spot starters were also excluded. There were a total of 195 QBs included in the sample.

A designed run includes quarterback sneaks and RPOs while excluding kneel-downs. Scrambles include any time a quarterback leaves the tackle box outside of the play design. Hits are any contact made on a quarterback by a defender while in the pocket that does not ultimately end in a sack (i.e. hit as thrown). Sacks are self-explanatory.

Statistics

None of the correlations ran during this study were bigger than “small,” which is expected as football is a random game that is nearly impossible to predict. However, if a relationship is considered “significant,” that means that the data is giving a signal that is statistically unlikely to be random. The r^2 projects “how much” of the results (i.e. games missed) can be explained by the independent variable (i.e. sacks + hits). In that specific example, it’s estimated that 62% of missed games by QBs can be explained solely by hits + sacks.

Mobile QBs do not miss more games than non-mobile QBs

There were 62 total QBs who met the threshold of > 3 scrambles + designed rushing attempts per game. We’ll consider this the “mobile” group. The rest are considered the “immobile” group as the per game average in designed runs + scrambles was 2.

BMI, Age and Injury

QBs with a BMI of 28 or lower missed on average 1 game per season while those with a BMI above 28 missed an average of 2 games. This flies in the face that mass leads to durability. The theory here is that unless your name is Cam Newton or Anthony Richardson, the more mass a QB holds, the less mobile they are. The less mobile they are, the less time they have to prepare for contact. Really, this ultimately illustrates to us is that injuries are much more random and complex than the average NFL fan understands.

Lastly, QBs 28 and older missed 1.7 games on average compared to 1.5 for the younger QBs. This also tracks as the the best predictor of future injury is previous injury and as every NFL player ages, they’re nearly guaranteed to have something pop.

Theory and What it all Means

As expected, when taking into account sacks + hits in pocket + scrambles + designed runs, injury rates go up. As you’ll remember, the thesis was never that taking hits is safe. However, the data does suggest that of these 4 possible outcomes for quarterbacks, taking a hit in the pocket and/or being sacked is more tightly linked to injury than any combination of a scramble and/or designed run.

Most of the risk (62%, in fact) for QB injury seems to come while standing in the pocket and taking a shot. This makes sense as players who scramble and run on a designed attempt have at least some semblance of control over whether or not they take on contact. That’s juxtaposed to a sitting duck in the pocket.

Of course, there are always exceptions and the takeaway here isn’t that all quarterbacks should scramble. Take Jimmy Garoppolo as an example. In 2022, he was initially hit in the pocket and technically “scrambled” his way into a season-ending foot injury outside of the pocket. Similarly, “designed attempt” doesn’t inherently mean that contact is the culprit of injury, as exemplified by Kyler Murray in 2022. Lastly, being in the “mobile” category does not mean sacks and hits leading to injury won’t happen (see 2022 Lamar Jackson, injured in the pocket). As always, it’s much, much more complicated than this. The only thing we can be relatively certain about is that hits + sacks lead to higher injury rates for NFL QBs.

Conclusion

In summary, the myth that rushing quarterbacks are more prone to injury doesn’t seem to hold up to statistical testing.

This data indicates that designed runs and scrambles have minimal influence on missed games due to injury, while quarterbacks who face a high number of sacks and hits face a significant correlation with increased injury risk.

For fantasy football players, it is crucial to consider a quarterback's ability to avoid hits, their offensive line's performance, and their overall health when assessing injury risk.

Rushing ability alone should not be the sole determining factor when evaluating a quarterback's durability. By understanding the nuances of injuries, fantasy football enthusiasts and NFL fans alike can make informed decisions when drafting quarterbacks and ultimately increase their chances of success.

Have a happy 4th of July!

-Edwin