T.J. Hockenson Profile and We're Back

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In honor of the Guide coming together, I wanted to give you a freebie. Here’s how I feel about T.J. Hockenson coming back from ACL surgery.

T.J. Hockenson

The Vikings TE had surgery to repair his torn ACL on January 29th of this year. Hockenson also injured his MCL, but only had his ACL operated on. Hockenson admitted that the Vikings “haven’t really put a timeline” on his recovery. This makes sense with the established 9-month rule of thumb for ACL returns being considered.

When looking at wide receivers who had ACL surgery in January or February since 2013 – a less physical position which implies the ability to return faster than a TE – the results aren’t promising:

• Paul Richardson - November return

• Devin Smith - November return

• Eli Rogers - November return

• Chris Godwin - September return. Then injured his hamstring (October return).

• Michael Gallup - October return

• Odell Beckham Jr. – Missed Weeks 1-2, returned Week 3 late-September

In terms of tight ends who are a similar archetype to Hockenson, the sample is small but does something like this:

• Rob Gronkowski - January surgery and Week 1 return

• Zach Ertz - November surgery and Week 1 return

• Logan Thomas - December surgery and Week 1 return. Then 4 week calf injury

None of these TEs had surgery as late as Hockenson. Some might argue that Gronk’s 8 month return sets the precedent here. The problem in Hockenson’s case is that, even at an accelerated 8-month return, it still leaves plenty of room to start him on the PUP and not play until Week 5 in October. Even though Gronk returned that quickly, he wasn’t able to handle his usual workload. Gronkowski was capped at 60% of the snaps until Week 5 of the 2014 season. Aside from timing, his size – 6’5” and 250 pounds – is working against Hockenson. It could take big boys longer to truly get their feet under them. 

Gronkowski, Ertz, and Thomas all saw their efficiency drop in Year 1 post-ACL surgery. Gronk’s yards per target dipped by 13.1% to a career-low at that point (9.9 career YPT to 8.3 in 2014). Ertz and Thomas were both on the wrong side of 30 when they sustained their injuries, and both suffered big dips in efficiency measured by YPT. In Ertz’s case, he averaged a pathetic 4.3 YPT last season in his first year off his torn-ACL. That’s a 39.5% drop compared to his career baseline (7.1 YPT). Thomas’ efficiency dropped by 16% in 2022 post-ACL compared to his career average. Luckily, Hockenson does have youth on his side. He just turned 27.

Hockenson had 95 receptions and finished as the TE2 in fantasy points per game with nearly 1,000 receiving yards in 2023. It was his fourth-straight season as a top-8 scoring TE by FPG. He has returned well from injury in the past, following up his 2019 ankle fracture with a cool 67/723/6 receiving (on 101 targets) while playing in all 16 games on a worse Lions offense in 2020. Still, he’s three years older now, and it's hard to take a flier on him in best ball considering gamers will likely have to take at least 4-5 zeroes from him to start the season. A dip in efficiency should be expected in his first year coming back from injury, too. Expect a Week 7-8 return near Halloween (or later). He’s an I.R. stash-only for seasonal leagues.