Tua Tagovailoa Injury Risk

Tua Tagovailoa Injury Risk Profile

Of the 40+ Injury Profiles in the Injury Prone Draftguide and Playbook, Tua’s was one of the hardest to write. If you’d rather not buy the guide, I understand. I’ll pass along my stance on him as of July 2023 for free because I can!

Pertinent History

• Hip dislocation 2019

• Ankle 2019 - 2022 (21% recurrence)

• Ribs 2021 (19% recurrence)

• Concussions (2x) 2022 (recurrence unknown, objectively higher than average)

Tua had 2 brain injuries last year. Full stop. It looked bad and it was bad. What is interesting is the less relative attention Kenny Pickett (2 concussions in 2022) and Matthew Stafford (concussion/spinal cord contusion”) received. I digress. Since the last concussion, Tua has been picking up the pieces as he admits in this interview. Here’s a snippet:

“I feel like this is what's best for me and my family. I love the game of football, if I didn't, I would have quit a long time [ago]”

Ultimately Tua has decided to move forward with his football career. I hope it goes without saying that his health today and in the future is what matters most.

And,

Because he’s playing next year, I’ll do my best to analyze his current medical situation from a fantasy football lens.

The Bad

Obviously Tua’s situation is unique and a perfect storm to garner media attention. It obviously looked bad and it was, of course, very bad. Now he’s facing an uphill battle as post-concussive symptoms can persist for at least 1 year after an initial concussion.  Further establishing a baseline for expectations, there’s about a 50% increased chance he’ll sustain yet another concussion in 2023. To make matters worse, Brandon Thorn’s offensive line rankings grade the Dolphins as below average (25 of 32). Yikes. There is tangible risk here.

The Hope

There’s no denying Tua’s risk this season but there is some hope. For starters, here’s a list of NFL players who have sustained multiple concussions in their careers but continued to play.

Obviously there are likely just as many guys who fell out of the league following just 1 concussion but the goal is to identify some sort of silver lining. And there is a silver lining. Teddy Bridgewater, Tua’s teammate last year, has had multiple concussions at the QB position himself. After sustaining 2 concussions in 2021, Teddy suffered another concussion in 2022. Fortunately, he was able to suit up the following week and threw for 300 yards! Tua is by far the hardest player to analyze this year from a medical perspective as head injuries can be completely unpredictable. Ultimately because of the firepower in that offense, I’m willing to take a (calculated) gamble on Tua and be slightly overweight vs. the field - especially in bestball. If you do draft him though, be sure to grab some late-round insurance if bench spots allow.

FantasyPros Overall ADP: 94.5

Underdog Overall ADP/Underdog Positional ADP: 91/QB10

Risk: Significantly Above Average - Extreme Risk

Injury Preference: No Risk-It/No-Biscuit

Thanks for reading and if you want more content like this, be sure to pre-order the Injury Prone Draft Guide and Playbook! Use promo code SHARP25 for 25% off before it drops.

-Edwin