Welcome Back and the “Second Year ACL" Myth

Edit: After reviewing the data I modified the inclusion criteria to better reflect fantasy outcomes. They’re reflected in the paragraph “The Exceptional 4”.

Introduction:

Welcome back! My apologies for the time away but it is baseball season. We’re coming in hot today and debunking the myth of the "second-year ACL" strategy. But first, you may have heard I’m publishing an ebook this summer. For a glimpse into what that work will look like, I’ll unpack yet another NFL injury myth.

Many fantasy players adhere to the notion that NFL running backs improve significantly from year one to year two after an ACL tear. However, there’s no substantial evidence for that - specifically for running backs. That means, by definition, there are players who are going undervalued every year off of ACL surgery. But what does “back” mean anyway? For our purposes, “back” will mean achieving at least 85% of pre-injury fantasy points per game (PPR).

The Harsh Reality:

Here’s the brutal truth. Since 2010, a total of 36 NFL running backs have torn their ACL and returned/attempted to return within 15 months. Out of this group, 20 players failed to return whatsoever. Yes, you read that right. More than half (53%) of the running backs who suffered an ACL tear never saw an NFL field again. For the “apples to apples” bros on Twitter, shrinking down the sample to a total of n=15 to assess only running backs who averaged at least 7.5 ppg prior to the injury, 7/14 didn’t return in year 2. For wide receivers, that number from 2012 - 2020 is 33%. This harsh reality exposes the uphill battle these athletes face.

Year 2 Improvement? Not So Fast:

Now for the widely propagated belief that players tend to be back back in year two post-ACL. Of the 36 running backs who returned/attempted to return within 15 months, a mere four actually improved on a fantasy points per game basis in their second year after surgery. That's right— only 11% of the entire sample managed to reach at least 85% of pre-injury levels in the second year after an ACL tear. Those players were: Rashaad Penny, Saquon Barkley, Jamaal Charles, and Adrian Peterson. The final outcome for J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards remains to be seen.

The Exceptional Four:

So, if 20 running backs didn’t return at all and 11 returned at 84% or less compared to pre-injury levels, who does that leave us with? The 4 running backs who averaged at least 10 PPR points per game and scored at least 85% of their pre-injury production in their 1st year back from an ACL year? The names are J.K. Dobbins, Adrian Peterson, Darren Sproles and Jamaal Charles. The point of today wasn’t to highlight outliers (we’ll save that for next week) but instead, to drive the point home that 86% of NFL running backs since coming back from an ACL tear in 2010 objectively did not improve from year 1 to year 2.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, the numbers don't lie. The "second-year ACL" strategy, touted as a surefire path to improvement for NFL players recovering from ACL tears, is nothing more than a myth. So how can we exploit this fact as sports bettors and fantasy players? Next week, we’ll delve deeper into the identification of outliers—the select few who defied expectations and overcame the challenges of ACL recoveries in year 1 or year 2.

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