Javonte Williams and "Compensation Injuries"

Good day, fantasy football enthusiasts,

Last week we discussed why Breece Hall could be a legitimate league winner. Read there to compare and contrast what you’re about to read.

Warning: Content is graphic and causes severe excitement depending on how many shares of Breece Hall you have.

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As of late, “compensation injuries” have captured the attention of both fantasy analysts and gamers alike. However, the truth about these secondary injuries in running backs after ACL surgery is not straightforward. Today, we delve into "compensation injuries" and explore their predictability. Moreover, we draw a connection between these injuries and Javonte Williams, shedding light on why he may be a volatile draft pick in fantasy football.

Firstly, let's understand what constitutes a "compensation injury." While there are instances where overuse or compensatory injuries occur, such as an ankle sprain leading to another ankle sprain or hamstring tightness progressing to a strain, predicting injuries remains a daunting task.

To gain deeper insights, let's examine the list of NFL running backs who have torn an ACL and subsequently missed additional time due to a secondary lower-body injury.

Notice that 41% of the overall sample missed time and experienced lower body injuries that led to even more missed time in the first year back after ACL surgery. Of that 41%, 7/14 were linked directly to the initial knee injury and started on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. Of course there was an overuse hamstring strain associated!

This raises concerns over Javonte Williams, as he could potentially face a similar scenario. Among the seven players who started on the PUP list, their average fantasy production was reduced to 52% of pre-injury levels. Furthermore, only 1 out of those 7 managed to achieve at least 90% of their pre-injury performance. This highlights the significance of starting on the PUP list and the higher likelihood of a secondary injury in complicated cases.

Taking into account the criteria discussed last week, let’s evaluate where Williams stands. Firstly, his receiving performance of 4.67 PPR points per game over 21 games demonstrates his versatility. Additionally, at just 23 years old, Williams has youth on his side. His draft capital of 35th overall in the NFL further highlights his skillset.

However, several factors work against Williams. For one, he underwent a complicated procedure involving his LCL/PLC which adds complexity to both his timeline and overall recovery. Second, Williams falls within the 69th percentile in SPORQ and the 40th percentile in the 40-yard dash, which may raise doubts about his ability to rebound even to those levels of explosive playmaking ability. The presence of a competitive backfield and the possibility of Denver seeking out other running backs like D'Andre Swift and Dalvin Cook adds to the uncertainty of his status. Finally, Williams will have just 11 months to recover from an injury that typically requires 11 to 12 months at least.

Considering these factors, it becomes evident that Javonte Williams carries a certain degree of volatility. While his potential is undeniable, the presence of red flags should not be ignored. As fantasy managers, it's crucial to weigh the risks and rewards of drafting J-Will.

The concept of "compensation injuries" in running backs after ACL surgery is not as predictable as it may initially appear. However, we do know that starting on the PUP list in the first year back after ACL surgery significantly increases the chances of underperformance and subsequent injury. Taking these factors into account, Javonte Williams emerges as a potentially volatile fantasy football draft pick. While he possesses several favorable attributes, the complexities surrounding his procedure, athletic metrics, backfield competition, and limited recovery time raise concerns about his immediate impact in the upcoming season.

Remember to consider the semi-predictable nature of "compensation injuries" post-ACL and make informed decisions based on the available metrics and circumstances surrounding players like Javonte Williams. Let’s collectively hold our breath and hope he avoids the PUP

Happy Drafting.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter and subscribe to the Injury Prone Podcast.